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Switch 2 Sales Fell 37% — And Nintendo Is Still Comfortably Ahead

Nintendo's first-half results show the Switch 2 cooling from its record launch pace — but 26.35 million consoles in, the comparison that matters is the one with the original Switch. Analysis of the 5 November numbers.

Nintendo reported its first-half results on 5 November 2026, covering the quarter ended 30 September, and the headline writes itself: Switch 2 sales have dropped 37% year-on-year. The fuller picture is more interesting than the headline. The console has now sold 26.35 million units in its lifetime, including 2.67 million in the July–September quarter, and 6.49 million across the first half — down 37.4% on the same period last year. Nintendo left its full-year forecast unchanged at 16.5 million for the fiscal year ending March 2027. This is a slowdown from a record launch pace, not a stumble.

The comparison that matters

Year-on-year comparisons flatter the original Switch and punish its successor, because the original's launch-year numbers were extraordinary and the Switch 2's were extraordinary in a different way: a launch so strong that the follow-up quarters were always going to look softer. The honest comparison is with the original Switch at the same point in its life — and there, the Switch 2 is still comfortably ahead. A console can be down 37% and winning at the same time, when the baseline it is measured against was a phenomenon.

The software is doing the heavy lifting

The results also underline how much of Nintendo's business is now software-led. Mario Kart World has sold 16.48 million copies, and Donkey Kong Bananza 5.05 million. Those are the numbers that explain why Nintendo can hold its hardware forecast steady through a softer quarter: the games that move consoles are already moving, and the catalogue is doing the work. The original Switch, meanwhile, has reached 157.20 million units in its lifetime — a reminder of the audience the Switch 2 is inheriting, and of the scale of the machine it is replacing.

The price question

One factor worth watching is price: the Switch 2's price rose by $50 in May 2026. Nintendo has not tied the sales trend to the increase, and we should not either — a 37% year-on-year decline against a record launch quarter has a simpler explanation. But the increase is part of the context for the second half: the console is now selling at a higher price into a quieter period, and its holiday performance will say more about demand than any single quarter can.

What the rest of the year depends on

Reading the forecast

The unchanged forecast of 16.5 million for the fiscal year ending March 2027 is the most interesting number in the whole report. Nintendo is not cutting its target after a 37% year-on-year decline, which tells you what the company thinks of the second half: the holiday quarter, the Ocarina launch, and the Switch 2 editions of Pikmin 4 and Xenoblade Chronicles 3 are expected to do the work. In our view, that confidence is justified — but it also concentrates the risk. If the holiday quarter disappoints, there is no second forecast revision to hide behind.

The long view

Step back and the story is a familiar one in console history: a record launch, a cooling second phase, and a software-led recovery. The original Switch followed a similar arc on its way to 157.20 million units, and the Switch 2 is ahead of that pace. The question was never whether sales would fall from launch levels — they always do. The question is whether the catalogue is strong enough to carry the console through its second year. The first-half results say yes. The second half will confirm it.

The release calendar gives Nintendo something to aim at. Pikmin 4 — Nintendo Switch 2 Edition, including Dandori Academy, arrives on 12 November; Xenoblade Chronicles 3 — Nintendo Switch 2 Edition follows on 3 December; and Metroid Ravenous is dated 28 January 2027. But the game the rest of the fiscal year leans on is already out: the Ocarina of Time remake, which launched on 5 November. As Kantan Games analyst Serkan Toto told VGC, Ocarina is the game Nintendo must rely on for the rest of the fiscal year. The first-half numbers say the hardware is fine. The second half will be decided by whether the software keeps selling it.

Sources

• Video Games Chronicle — November 2026
• Nintendo Life — November 2026
• Engadget — November 2026

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